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Nigeria’s crude oil and gas export earnings have declined by about 44% on average in the 2015–2024 period compared to 2008–2014, marking a structural shift in the country’s oil performance.

This is based on a review of crude oil and gas export figures provided, alongside referenced U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) production data.

While global oil price shocks and the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to volatility, the deeper trend reflects a sustained decline in production volumes over the past decade.

The data shows that Nigeria’s export profile changed significantly after 2014, resetting to a lower range that has persisted despite periodic recoveries.

An examination of export values, production levels, and more recent hydrocarbon trends highlights how the country moved from a high-output era to a more fragile oil-dependent reality.

Nigeria reached a peak crude oil and gas export value of $93.89 billion in 2011, the highest in the dataset.

Output dropped further to about 1.3 million barrels per day in 2022 before recovering modestly to around 1.5 million barrels per day in 2024.

The figures indicate that beyond price volatility, Nigeria experienced a significant and prolonged loss of production capacity.

Between 2008 and 2014, Nigeria remained largely a two-million-barrels-per-day producer, despite global price swings.

Although the 2009 global financial crisis caused temporary export volatility, production capacity remained intact, allowing exports to rebound strongly and peak between 2011 and 2013.

By 2014, however, early signs of production softening had emerged. The global oil price crash of 2014–2016 then compounded domestic challenges.

Export values reached a near-cycle low in 2016 at $32.02 billion. Although there were rebounds in 2018 and 2022, these were largely price-driven rather than production-led recoveries.

By 2023 and 2024, production stabilized at approximately 1.5 million barrels per day, but this remained well below early 2010s levels. The export system had effectively reset to a lower baseline.

The shift in export performance has had broader macroeconomic implications. Nigeria’s fiscal framework remains heavily reliant on oil revenue, meaning lower production directly affects public finances.

Additionally, global energy transition trends add urgency. As major oil companies pivot toward cleaner energy investments, the window for maximizing hydrocarbon value narrows.

For Nigeria, stabilizing and expanding production capacity becomes critical in a world where long-term oil demand growth is increasingly uncertain.

The result is an oil sector that is no longer simply cyclical. Instead, the challenge appears structural, with sustained production weaknesses limiting the country’s ability to fully benefit from price upswings.

Recent data suggests that while crude oil remains dominant, Nigeria’s hydrocarbon export mix may be gradually evolving.

Gas is accounting for a more meaningful share of exports than in earlier years, and petroleum products are no longer negligible.

If the fourth quarter performs moderately well, full-year 2025 export totals could approach or slightly exceed 2024 levels, though the composition would differ from the crude-dominated profile of the past.