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A nightmare scenario may be unfolding for Nigeria as war between the United States, Israel, and Iran intensifies.

For a war taking place roughly 5,800 kilometres away, the economic tremors are already reaching Nigeria’s fragile recovery.

What initially looked like a potential oil windfall now appears capable of disrupting the assumptions behind Nigeria’s current economic strategy.

At first glance, higher crude oil prices should benefit a country that still depends heavily on petroleum revenues. Early projections suggested the conflict could push oil prices toward the $100 per barrel mark.

Historically, such spikes have delivered fiscal relief and temporary breathing room for Nigeria’s public finances. Governments in the past often relied on oil windfalls to cushion domestic economic pressures.

However, the reality unfolding now appears far more complicated than those optimistic projections suggested.

Higher crude prices rarely arrive alone; they drag inflationary pressures across the entire global economy. For Nigeria, this means the benefits of higher export prices may quickly be offset by rising domestic costs.

Energy prices are the most immediate pressure point in this unfolding scenario. Even with the emergence of domestic refining capacity, Nigeria remains exposed to global pricing shocks.

The Dangote Refinery may strengthen supply security, but it does not guarantee price stability. Global crude benchmarks still influence the cost of petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel within the country.

Already, early signals suggest energy prices are creeping upward across several segments of the economy. Fuel and diesel prices have reportedly risen by roughly ten per cent within a short period.

Such increases quickly ripple through transportation, logistics, and manufacturing sectors that depend heavily on energy inputs. When energy costs climb, almost every other price in the economy eventually follows.

Food inflation may become the next casualty of prolonged geopolitical instability. Nigeria has made visible efforts to strengthen domestic agricultural production over recent years.

Nevertheless, the country still imports a significant share of processed food and agricultural inputs.

These imports make domestic food prices vulnerable to global shipping disruptions and rising production costs.

Wars in the Middle East frequently disrupt global shipping routes and insurance markets.

Freight costs tend to rise quickly as insurers reprice geopolitical risk and shipping companies adjust routes.

If transport costs increase, imported food becomes more expensive before even reaching Nigerian ports.

Local processors then face higher input costs, which inevitably push retail prices upward.

The aviation industry is already showing early signs of stress from rising geopolitical uncertainty. Airlines are warning of potential fare increases as operating costs rise sharply.

Travel disruptions, airspace closures, and route adjustments all increase operational complexity and expenses. Each cancelled or rerouted flight can trigger compensation payments, hotel costs, and insurance claims.