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The United States President, Donald Trump, approved the attack on Iran in the early hours of February 28, 2028, after accusing the Middle Eastern country of posing a threat to U.S. interests.

The U.S. President cited Iran’s record of bloody repression, its support for regional proxies, and allegations that it is secretly seeking to build a nuclear weapon. He has also called for regime change in Iran.

Iran has responded with attacks against U.S. interests in other Middle Eastern countries such as the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Israel. It is also reportedly targeting Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and even Iraq, all countries with significant U.S. presence and strategic interests.

The attack is unfolding over a weekend when global markets are closed. However, the likely global economic impact is already being analyzed across the world.

Iran is one of the world’s largest crude oil producers, with estimates suggesting it produces around 1.5 million barrels per day.

The Gulf countries currently under threat collectively produce an estimated 18 million barrels per day. Their output could be severely impacted if the war escalates beyond control.

For Nigeria, the U.S./Israeli conflict with Iran could have widening economic ramifications. I suspect this could affect Nigeria’s crude oil sales, oil prices, imports of strategic goods and services, capital inflows, exchange rate stability, travel, and security.

Here is how I think events may unfold in the coming days and weeks.

Nigeria is currently ranked among the top oil producers globally. It sits behind countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Iran, and Kuwait in terms of output. Any disruption to crude oil production in these countries could create an opportunity for Nigeria — if it can increase its own output.

January data from OPEC indicate that Nigeria produced approximately 1.47 million barrels per day in January 2026. Nigeria’s top crude export destinations include Spain, India, and France.

If Nigeria can ramp up production at a time when supply from the Gulf is constrained, this could significantly boost fiscal revenues.

However, reports that Iran may close the Strait of Hormuz — which handles nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply — introduce another layer of risk. A blockage could severely disrupt global supply chains, leading to broader economic consequences.

Crude Oil Prices 

Brent crude rose to $72.87 per barrel on the day of the attack as traders weighed the potential consequences. Depending on how prolonged the conflict becomes, prices could climb above $100 per barrel within weeks.

Historically, Gulf crises have created windfall gains for Nigeria due to elevated oil prices. A major escalation point would be if Iran proceeds with closing the Strait of Hormuz. According to reports, about 21 million barrels of oil from Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE pass through that route daily.

While the current hostilities are already pushing prices upward, a full closure of the Strait would represent a structural supply shock with far-reaching consequences for global oil markets.

At $73 per barrel, crude is already at a seven-month high and has risen nearly 12% over the past month. The upward pressure could persist if tensions deepen.

Fuel Prices 

Higher crude oil prices typically have immediate implications for petrol prices.

Petrol prices in Nigeria averaged ₦1,036 in January and had been declining following increased output from the Dangote Refinery and a relatively stronger naira.