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Nigeria’s total debt service has risen sharply in recent years, with a significant portion of the increase occurring under the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, as debt obligations surged to N16.26 trillion in 2025 from N7.79 trillion in 2023.

Since Q3 2023, when the current administration took office, quarterly debt service has remained elevated, peaking at a record N4.86 trillion in Q4 2025.

This is based on data released by the Debt Management Office (DMO).

On a quarterly basis, the upward trend peaked in Q4 2025, with debt service hitting a record N4.86 trillion. This was 37.86% higher than N3.52 trillion in Q3 2025 and 49.93% above N3.24 trillion in Q4 2024, showing a steady rise in debt payments.

A comparison of Nigeria’s debt service trajectory before and during the Tinubu administration shows a clear structural shift in Nigeria’s debt service trajectory.

The major turning point came in Q3 2023, when external debt service surged by 270.78% quarter-on-quarter, driving a 234.78% increase in total debt service. This marked a clear shift from earlier trends and set the stage for the elevated debt service levels observed since then.

Following the Q3 surge, total quarterly debt service remained consistently above N2 trillion and subsequently rose past the N3 trillion and N4 trillion thresholds

This indicates that the increase was driven by repayment volume rather than by exchange rate pressure.

The sustained rise in debt service since Q3 2023 highlights growing fiscal pressure, with an increasing share of government resources being allocated to debt obligations.

This implies a debt service-to-revenue ratio of about 60.73%. This analysis is from the 2026 – 2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal strategy Paper (MTEF & FSP) from the Budget Office of the Federation (BOF).

This implies that Nigeria is spending N6.94 out of every N10, or 69.41%, of its earnings on debt service in 2025, highlighting the growing strain on fiscal sustainability and limiting the government’s ability to fund growth-enhancing investments.

The rising dominance of external debt also adds another layer of risk, as repayments require foreign exchange, which will in turn increase the economy’s exposure to global financial conditions.

The comparison between Q3 2019–Q2 2023 and Q3 2023–Q4 2025 highlights a clear regime shift in Nigeria’s debt service dynamics.

The consistency of high debt service levels since Q3 2023 indicates that the increase has become structural rather than temporary.