The N7.98 trillion oil windfall claim attributed to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar is false, Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Information and Strategy, has said.

Onanuga made the claim in a statement on Sunday while responding to Atiku’s criticism of the Tinubu administration’s borrowing, fuel subsidy removal, tax reforms, and broader economic policies, asking him to show the workings by which he arrived at the figure.

He argued that Atiku’s assessment was largely anchored on 2024 data and failed to account for changes in Nigeria’s economy and the impact of reforms implemented since then.

What the Presidency is saying

Onanuga said the oil windfall claim did not account for lower-than-expected crude oil production, production costs, existing crude commitments and other factors that determine government revenue.

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  • “There is no such windfall of N7.98 trillion. Any incremental revenue from higher oil prices is reflected in the monthly FAAC figures,” he said.
  • “The convenient mistake many analysts make is to multiply the oil price by the daily crude production volume to determine revenue to the government.”
  • “Such analyses ignore the cost of production, the share of crude belonging to the oil-producing companies and the impact of crude sale contracts such as forward contracts designed to hedge against price volatility.”
  • “Atiku will do well to show the workings for his N7.98 trillion oil windfall.”

Onanuga said average Brent crude prices during the first half of 2026 were about $90 per barrel, compared with the $64.85 benchmark, but average daily production was about 1.6 million barrels per day against a forecast of 1.84 million barrels per day. He said the production shortfall partly offset the higher oil price.

Onanuga also defended the administration’s borrowing and subsidy reforms, arguing that debt should be assessed against the size of the economy, revenue capacity, debt-servicing costs and the use of borrowed funds.

He said Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio remains below 40%, compared with higher ratios in several peer and advanced economies, while the debt-service-to-revenue ratio has fallen from nearly 100% in December 2022 to below 60%.

The presidential aide said the removal of fuel subsidy had also improved revenues accruing to states and local governments through the Federation Account, creating more fiscal space for infrastructure and social programmes.

He said the reforms were designed to correct long-standing distortions rather than simply generate savings.

Onanuga said Nigeria’s economy has changed significantly since the difficult adjustment period of 2024, when the naira’s depreciation pushed dollar-denominated GDP to about $253 billion.

According to him, the economy has since recovered to approximately $377 billion, representing an increase of about 49%, while naira GDP rose from about N314 trillion in 2024 to around N530 trillion.

Get up to speed

Last week, Atiku had criticised the Tinubu administration over what he described as its unprecedented domestic borrowing despite the significant windfall accruing from high international crude oil prices

In a statement issued by his Senior Special Assistant on Public Communication, Phrank Shaibu, Atiku described the administration’s economic management as contradictory, opaque, and bereft of fiscal discipline.

He noted that the federal government has already raised about N5 trillion from the domestic bond market in the first half of 2026, almost 80% of the total amount borrowed during the corresponding period in 2025.

More insights

Analysts estimate that ending the fuel subsidy saved the government between N4 trillion and N6 trillion annually in fiscal costs.

Nigeria’s total external debt rose from $42.49 billion in December 2023 to $51.86 billion by December 2025, while domestic debt increased from N59.1 trillion to N89.4 trillion within the same period.

What you should know

The Federal Government earlier said it will, in the coming days,publish a detailed analysis of savings from the removal of fuel and foreign exchange subsidies and how the funds have been utilised.

Earlier, Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), called on President Bola Tinubu to resign, alleging that he lacks the capacity to address Nigeria’s worsening insecurity, hunger and poverty.

The NDC presidential candidate had said he would introduce policies that place a greater tax burden on the wealthy to support productive sectors of the economy and improve the welfare of ordinary Nigerians if elected President.